In 2024, there was an increase of 5%, and in 2025, an increase of 8%.
Last year was a terrible year for PC shipments—according to Gartner, it was the worst year in the industry's history—due to economic and political uncertainty, loss of consumer confidence, and the hangover from the post-pandemic boom. However, the good news for the U.S. PC market is that it has been revealed that sales in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 5% year-on-year, reaching 14.8 million units. It is expected that sales will grow by another 5% for the rest of this year, and by 2025, they will grow by 8% to reach 75 million units.
Analysts are optimistic about the recovery in 2024. According to Canalys, their forecasts are correct: this year, PC shipments are expected to be 69 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5%, and in 2025, shipments are expected to be 76 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8%.
It is reported that most of the increase stems from the end of support for Windows 10 (October 14, 2025). Users who are currently unwilling to pay high fees for extended security updates may turn to Windows 11. Since the latest operating system requires hardware such as the TPM 2.0 module, many users may be forced to upgrade.
Another factor is that AMD and Intel will launch new processors in 2024. Although not everyone is convinced by the new AI laptops with Snapdragon, they are expected to spark a new wave of PC sales among consumers, simply by their use of current industry buzzwords.Canalys analyst Greg Davis said: "Due to a large portion of the PC installed base still using Windows 10, it is expected that the next four quarters will bring a stronger momentum for the update cycle." "At the same time, the AI capabilities on devices in the market are also more abundant, and new products and user experiences will excite consumers and businesses in the Windows and Apple ecosystems."
Canalys, as always, has paid attention to the top PC vendors of this quarter. Despite a slight decline in the annual growth rate, HP still ranks first. Followed by Dell, Lenovo, Apple, and Acer. Apple performed well this quarter, with shipments growing by 22% year-on-year.
In terms of tablets, Apple continues to dominate with its iPad product line. iPad shipments reached 4.9 million units, accounting for more than half of the market share, while Samsung, ranking second, shipped 1.8 million units.
China's PC market will grow by 3% in 2024
Canalys predicts that the growth rate of China's personal computer (PC, excluding tablets) market will rebound to 3% in 2024 and will grow by 10% by 2025, mainly driven by the update demand of the business sector. The tablet market is expected to grow by 4% in 2024 and 2025.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, PC (excluding tablets) shipments in mainland China were 11.3 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. Desktop shipments fell by 13% to 3.3 million units; notebook shipments decreased by 7% year-on-year, reaching 8.1 million units. This led to a total shipment of 41.2 million units in 2023, a decrease of 17% compared to 2022.
China's tablet market fell by 3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, reaching 8.4 million units. The total shipments for the whole year of 2023 were 28.3 million units, and competition is intensifying as new entrants pay more attention to this segment.Previously, IDC provided ten insights into the Chinese PC market for 2024.
Insight One: The overall Chinese PC market is expected to resume growth in 2024, with IDC forecasting an overall positive outlook for the PC market in 2024. The total PC market shipments are expected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year compared to 2023. Among them, the first half of 2024 will be more affected by fluctuations, with an expected shipment growth of 1.5% year-on-year; the PC market growth rate in the second half of 2024 is expected to be 5.6%.
Insight Two: The proportion of AIPC in the overall PC market in China will reach 55% in 2024. It is expected that the proportion of AIPC in the overall PC market will reach 55% in 2024, and 85% by 2027. Among them, due to lightweight IT deployment and cloud demand, AIPC will develop the fastest in the SME market, exceeding 60% in 2024; the consumer market, driven by gaming scenarios and learning creation scenarios, will also develop rapidly, reaching 55.4% in 2024; large enterprises, affected by factors such as security, will have relatively slow initial deployment, but it is expected that by 2027, the proportion of AIPC in the large customer market will reach 76.8%.
Insight Three: AIPC will drive and lead the diversification of the terminal ecosystem. The AI-assisted capabilities starting from the PC will better help users optimize aspects of life, learning, work, and entertainment, and seizing the opportunity of the AIPC large model will become an important direction for promoting brand development.
Insight Four: The demand for workstations will be driven by the discrete manufacturing industry and professional services industry, with the workstation market expected to grow by 10.3% in 2024. The growth of desktop workstations is driven by the demand for image rendering in the automotive and electronics industries in the discrete manufacturing industry; the procurement of professional services represented by the Internet is expected to recover next year, which will bring a certain increase in mobile workstation shipments. Over the next four years, the compound annual growth rate of the workstation market will reach 13.1%.
Insight Five: The consumption segmentation in second-tier cities will further intensify, and the consumption segmentation in T3, T4, and other second-tier cities will further intensify. The attractiveness of central and eastern second-tier cities to the youth group migration increases, and the growth rate of the consumer market is expected to surpass some T2 cities; the industrial structure of the SME market is accelerating towards the service industry and manufacturing industry, such as Taizhou, Quanzhou, Xianyang, Heze and other cities, the PC shipment growth rate in 2024 will exceed 10%.
Insight Six: After two consecutive years of decline, the government education and large enterprise PC market began to recover, with an expected growth of 6.7% in 2024. In 2024, the education market is expected to grow by 10.3%. The government industry is expected to grow by 13.4%, and local governments are expected to have a large batch of centralized procurement replacements. Large enterprises will grow by 1.7%, mainly in industries such as banking, energy, transportation, and public utilities. Looking at the products, the workstation market is expected to grow by 15.7%, with mobile workstations growing more significantly. Looking at the competitive situation, in industries such as finance, telecommunications, energy, and public utilities, the competition among small brands has intensified, and the long tail effect has emerged.Insight Seven: The terminalization of AI is driving the medium and long-term procurement needs of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). With the rapid development of AI models and computing power, along with the requirements for data security and privacy protection, the terminalization of AI has shown its necessity and feasibility. It will promote the upgrade of terminals from traditional productivity tools to intelligent assistant services, providing a new user experience in a multi-scenario collaborative office environment. This will bring innovation and efficiency to SMEs while ensuring that data privacy is properly protected. The demand for PCs as basic office tools will continue to grow. The compound growth rate of SMEs in the next five years is expected to be 8.4%.
Insight Eight: The deployment of enterprise cloud is accelerating, and the proportion of low-end PCs in government and large enterprises is increasing. At the same time, the demand for local PCs and the priority of funds will be affected to some extent. Some local PC products will shift towards the low-end, and the overall proportion of low-end PCs in government and large enterprises will increase.
Insight Nine: Cost-effectiveness will become a decisive factor for most consumers when shopping. Performance and price have become the key points that consumers need to balance when shopping. As the performance of products continues to strengthen, pricing has become a focus that all brands need to pay attention to.
Insight Ten: In 2024, the overall PC prices will still show a K-shaped trend, but the market prices in the sub-segments will decline. With the launch of new series processors in 2024, the inventory of the previous generation of CPU product series still exists and will lead to a price drop, especially in thin and light products, where prices will further decrease. From the demand side, the demand for thin and light notebook products among the medium and light PC user groups will also shift towards more cost-effective options. Although increased price sensitivity leads to a decline in the average unit price of products, the proportion of high-performance notebooks will also increase. The demand for gaming will continue, and the continuous emergence of new needs for AIPC will also become an important driving force for the high-end PC market, and the market share of high-performance PC products will also increase.
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