TSMC remains the largest buyer of EUV equipment.
TSMC's 2nm advanced process capacity is expected to be mass-produced in 2025, with equipment manufacturers actively delivering machines, especially the EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography) used in advanced processes, which is crucial. More than 60 EUVs will be delivered in the next two years, with a total investment of over 400 billion New Taiwan dollars. With the continuous expansion of production capacity, ASML's delivery volume in 2025 is expected to increase by more than 30%, benefiting the supply chain in Taiwan. Among them, Jia Deng is actively working with ASML to invest in the research and development of the next generation of High-NA EUV. Other companies such as Fan Xuan, Yideshi, Gongzhun, Jingding, and Xiangming are also expected to benefit simultaneously.
Equipment manufacturers have revealed that the supply of EUV equipment is tight, with delivery times as long as 16-20 months. Therefore, most of the 2024 orders will be delivered in the following year. According to estimates by legal persons, TSMC's EUV orders this year will reach 30 units, and 35 units next year, but there will be slight adjustments due to capital expenditure. In addition to the research and development center, there are no plans for mass production equipment for High-NA EUV in the next two years.
In response to customer demand, ASML planned new production capacity last year, and the growth of delivery volume next year is clear. It is estimated that the total delivery volume this year will reach 53 units, and it is expected to reach more than 72 units next year.
The supply chain pointed out that ASML's production capacity plan for 2025, with a goal of 90 EUVs, 600 DUVs, and 20 High-NA EUVs, has not changed. The 2024 Investor Day will be held on November 14th, and the latest blueprint for the next five years will be proposed.
As TSMC's advanced process capacity gradually opens up, for example, the 3nm factory in Tainan will enter mass production in the third quarter, and next year, the P8 factory will also gradually introduce EUV machines. The 2nm in Hsinchu Baoshan has a strong demand for EUV in the next three years, and the 2nm in Kaohsiung is also progressing simultaneously.
The supply chain also revealed that the additional funds for TSMC's P1A project in the United States are expected to be in place in the third quarter, and the construction of the plant has entered the final stage. In addition to TSMC's construction needs in other domestic and foreign plants, such as Hsinchu Baoshan, Kumamoto in Japan, Nanzi in Kaohsiung, and packaging and testing plants, as well as the construction needs of CSP data centers, the demand for equipment is not pessimistic.
More EUV equipment drives the growth of EUV mask box usage, and legal persons believe that Jia Deng will be the most benefited manufacturer. FOUP (front-opening unified pod) continues to capture market share. Compared with competitors, Jia Deng has built its own hot air extraction environment to exclude plastic particles or contaminants, which can be directly sent to the customer's plant for use. At the same time, Jia Deng has also cooperated in the research and development of ASML High-NA EUV.ASML Launches First 2nm Low-NA EUV Scanner Twinscan NXE: 3800E
Enthusiast readers tend to focus on microchips manufactured using cutting-edge process technology, and for Intel, this means high numerical aperture (High-NA) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology in the coming years. However, the vast majority of chips we will use in the coming years will be manufactured using low numerical aperture (Low-NA) EUV lithography equipment. This is why ASML's latest announcement is particularly noteworthy.
As discovered by Computerbase, ASML delivered its first updated Twinscan NXE: 3800E lithography system for fab installation in March this year. The NXE: 3800E is the latest version of the company's 0.33 numerical aperture (Low-NA) lithography scanner series, designed to manufacture 2nm and 3nm process chips.
ASML has not yet disclosed all the details about the capabilities of this equipment, but the company's previous roadmap indicates that the updated 3800E will provide higher wafer throughput and higher wafer alignment accuracy, which ASML calls "matched machine overlay." Based on this roadmap, ASML expects its fifth-generation Low-NA EUV scanner to process 200 wafers per hour, marking an important milestone for this technology, as one of the drawbacks of EUV lithography technology is its lower throughput compared to today's well-researched and adjusted deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment.
For ASML's logic and memory chip wafer fab customers (currently, there are only about six companies on this list), the updated scanner will help these fabs continue to improve and expand their cutting-edge chip production. Even as large fabs are expanding their operations by adding facilities, increasing the output of existing facilities is still an important factor in meeting capacity demands and reducing production costs (or at least controlling production costs).
Since EUV scanners are not cheap—a typical scanner costs about $180 million, and the Twinscan NXE: 3800E may cost even more—these equipment costs need some time to be fully amortized. In the meantime, the faster introduction of a new generation of EUV scanners will have a significant financial impact on ASML, which already enjoys the status of being the sole supplier of this critical equipment.
Following the 3800E, ASML has at least one more generation of Low-NA EUV scanners under development, including the Twinscan NXE: 4000F. It is expected to be released around 2026.
High-NA EUV Lithography Machines in the SpotlightIn December last year, ASML delivered the industry's first extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment with a numerical aperture (NA) of 0.55, the Twinscan EXE: 5000, to Intel. Currently, this equipment is mainly used for development purposes and to familiarize the company's customers with the new technology and its capabilities. The commercial use of high NA equipment is planned for 2025 and beyond.
Intel announced plans to start high-volume manufacturing (HVM) using ASML's high NA Twinscan EXE scanners from 2025, when the company intends to begin using its 18A (1.8nm) process technology. To this end, Intel has been experimenting with high NA lithography equipment since 2018, when it acquired the Twinscan EXE: 5000 from ASML, and the company has ordered ASML's next-generation high NA commercial equipment, the Twinscan EXE: 5200.
High NA EUV equipment is crucial for higher resolution (
Intel may adopt ASML's high NA tools in its process technology after the 18A, while competitors TSMC and Samsung will use them later in this decade. These scanners will not be cheap, with each device estimated to cost over $300 million, further increasing the cost of the most advanced process wafer fabs.
The most advanced EUV scanners delivered by ASML to customers have a 0.33 NA and 13nm resolution, capable of printing chips with metal pitches of about 30nm in a single exposure pattern, which is sufficient for process nodes such as 5nm or 4nm. For finer processes, chip manufacturers will either need to use EUV double exposure or pattern shaping techniques, which they will do in the coming years. Beyond that, they plan to use ASML's next-generation high NA EUV scanners with a numerical aperture of 0.55 and a resolution of about 8nm.
It should be noted that 0.55 NA EUV equipment will not replace the deep ultraviolet (DUV) and EUV equipment currently used in wafer fabs, just as the introduction of 0.33 NA EUV did not gradually phase out DUV lithography equipment. For the foreseeable future, ASML will continue to advance its DUV and 0.33 NA EUV scanners. At the same time, high NA EUV lithography technology will continue to play a key role in shrinking transistor size and improving their performance.
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