The estimated PC shipment growth for 2024 is about 3%.
According to preliminary data from Counterpoint, global PC shipments in the second quarter of 2024 grew by 3.1% year-on-year, reaching 62.5 million units, marking the second consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth in shipments for the market. This growth, driven by a moderate replacement cycle and sluggish competition, highlights the ongoing momentum of recovery in the global PC market for 2024.
AI-enabled PCs continue to be the hottest topic in the PC industry. Laptops equipped with the Qualcomm Snapdragon X platform have already sparked the first wave of the AI laptop craze. The upcoming AMD Ryzen AI 300 and Intel Lunar Lake, to be launched in the second half of the third quarter of 2024, will further promote the popularity of AI PCs.
Despite the sluggish demand in China, Lenovo remains the leader among PC vendors, with a market share of 23.6% in the June quarter and a year-on-year shipment growth of about 4%. HP and Dell performed relatively stable in this quarter, thanks to the recovery of orders in North America. HP's market share in the second quarter of 2024 was 21%, while Dell's was 16%.
Apple kept a low profile in the latest quarter, with a market share of 8.5%. The company is waiting for the launch of the next generation of M4-based MacBooks to regain momentum in shipments by the end of 2024. Overall, Counterpoint believes that the brand ranking and share in the second quarter of 2024 have remained basically unchanged.
AI laptops will expand the AI PC market in the second half of 2024, especially driven by the surge in Windows on Arm AI devices at the end of the second quarter of 2024. These Snapdragon-based solutions have better battery efficiency than the dominant x86 camp.Counterpoint believes that the collaboration between MediaTek and NVIDIA on the next generation of Arm-based artificial intelligence laptop solutions will also become another driving force for the expansion of Arm PC market share in 2025-2026, while x86 suppliers will be affected. We expect Arm PCs to account for more than 25% of the market share by 2027.
Regarding the development of AI PCs, Senior Analyst William Li said, "The second half of 2024 will be the battleground for AI PCs. Suppliers are paving the way for the popularization of AI PCs and the rise of new generation technologies. However, due to the high price of AI PCs, we believe that corporate (commercial) demand will take the lead over the mainstream consumer market, although we may not see the fastest adoption path in the first year of AI PCs. As more AI use cases and solutions are developed and applied to PCs, we will see accelerated deployment in the future. Benefiting from the demand for AI PCs and the replacement cycle after the pandemic, we reiterate the view that PC shipments will grow by about 3% in 2024."
Has the global PC market recovered for two consecutive quarters, and is it expected to accelerate growth?
In the second quarter of this year, the performance of various manufacturers in the global PC market was mixed.
According to IDC data, among the top five global PC manufacturers, Lenovo shipped 14.7 million units in the second quarter, maintaining the top spot with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%; HP shipped 13.7 million units, ranking second with a 1.8% increase in shipments; Dell, ranked third, shipped 10.1 million units, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year.
Compared with the steady performance of the top manufacturers, Apple and Acer, ranked fourth and fifth respectively, showed impressive shipment performance. The data shows that Apple shipped 5.7 million units in the quarter, but the year-on-year growth was 20.8%, the largest increase; Acer, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7%, followed closely with 4.4 million units shipped in the quarter.
In terms of market share, Lenovo accounted for 22.7% of the PC market in the second quarter, slightly higher than the 22.5% a year ago, HP's share slightly decreased from 21.3% a year ago to 21.1%, Dell's share decreased from 16.4% to 15.5%, Apple increased from 7.5% to 8.8%, and Acer from 6.2% to 6.8%.
At the same time, Canalys also released the global PC market report for the second quarter of 2024. The report shows that the global personal computer market has a strong growth momentum in the second quarter of 2024, with global desktop and notebook shipments growing by 3.4% year-on-year, reaching 62.8 million units.
The reason for the recovery of the global PC market is closely related to the replacement cycle driven by Windows 11 and AI PCs.From a traditional perspective, the update cycle of Windows 11 is undoubtedly driving an increase in PC demand. In June 2021, Microsoft released Windows 11 and announced that it would cease technical support for Windows 10 in October 2025. This also means that devices with substandard hardware configurations will face the need for an update or replacement.
According to a survey conducted by Canalys in June this year, the vast majority of channel partners indicated that the cessation of support for Windows 10 will have the greatest impact on customer update plans in the second half of 2024 or the first half of 2025, indicating that shipment growth will only accelerate in the next few quarters.
In the meantime, in response to new market changes, most of the global PC industry participants have formulated preliminary strategies for AI PCs, focusing mainly on the development of components and tapping into the potential of the commercial market. Ryan Reith pointed out that chip manufacturers including Qualcomm, Intel, and AMD may create momentum in the AI PC market. From the current perspective, the commercial market for AI PCs will have a considerable growth space in the short term, but the story for the consumer market "has not been fully told". This may also imply more development prospects for the market.
The global PC market is accelerating its recovery.
Ryan Reith, Vice President of IDC's Worldwide Device Trackers, believes that the PC market, like other technology markets, undoubtedly faces challenges in the short term due to maturity and headwinds. However, the positive growth for two consecutive quarters, coupled with the leading effect of the AI PC topic and the replacement cycle of the commercial market, seems to be exactly what the PC market needs. Although the current market focus is on AI technology, it has had a greater impact on the purchase situation of non-AI PCs. Overall, the mature PC market generally shows positive signs.
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